Exposing the reality of Pittsburg's non-conference record of the last few years

While Pitt has had a solid win over the Dookies, can we please stop singing the praises of their 61-3 record in November and December? While it's not easy to win that many games, the record and the impressive RPI is a factor of "who did you play" and "where did you play them". And the historical RPI/SOS numbers don't lie. They are there for everyone to see :-)

Pitt's 2008 current out of conference SOS is 120, thanks to the Duke game giving it a big boost. This year's schedule is a little bit of an upgrade, but not by a whole lot. They barely beat a weakened Washington team in Seattle. And barely is really barely. One of the little guys of Washington had a winning basket but it was fractions of a second after the buzzer showed 0:00. So this was as close of a "W" you can get as any. The home game against Oklahoma State was another "fudging the numbers" attempt. Everyone knows that OKi State does not do well on the road. Their "road" game was a few thousand inches down the road, still in Steeltown against "powerhouse" Duquesne. Everything else was winnable games at home. So let's not forget that!

But let's look at the previous years to see how Pitt has managed to assembly this "impressive" record. The numbers are the out of conference strength of schedule:

2006-07: 23 non-conference Strength of Schedule (SOS). Record: 13-2

2005-06: 227. Record: 11-0

2004-05: 262. Record: 10-1

2003-04: 234. Record: 13-0

2002-03 : 226. Record: 10-1

As you can see it's a lot easier to pile up the wins if you play cupcakes at home. It's no rocket science. And while the victory over Duke at MSG was HUGE for Pitt, and they will earn my first Top 25 vote in the next BlogPoll Top 25 blogger's poll (week #7 is next), it doesn't mean that that victory "legitimizes" all the cupcakes they beat in the non-conference the last few years. Sorry Pitt fans, the numbers don't lie :-) And you can't fudge them. They SCREAM :-)

Undefeated in December: Exposed by the SOS

It sure is fun to follow the remaining 14 undefeated teams. It's fun for the fans, it's fun for the bloggers, it's fun for the media. Some root for teams to remain undefeated, others root for teams to lose, some just want to enjoy the excitment.

However, being undefeated in December is not a function of how good your team is, but who you play!.

Don't believe me! Look at the numbers at Ken Pomeroy's excellent site, sorted by the fewer losses. There we see the 14 undefeated teams EXPOSED in all their glory: While the RPI is obviously inflated because of the 100% winning percentage, the SOS tells the story.

Of the 14 undefeated teams, ten of them have an SOS (strength of schedule) of 114 or worse. Only one of the fourteen undefeated teams has an SOS ranked better than #59. That's Frank Haith's Miami Heat Hurricanes with a #29 SOS! The next up is Vandy with SOS #59, Texas at #88, Memphis at #95, and the rest are above SOS 100.

The RPI Files: Exposed by the 2007-2008 RPI and SOS

You think you could get away with it Pitt, didn't you? You think the RPI and SOS wouldn't get published? You thought wrong :) You are exposed!

Our senior RPI analyst Jacques Kaffertie grumbles and complains about teams with poor non-conference SOS in his regular "The RPI Files" segment. Jacques Kaffertie wrote this whole blog post while standing up and typing angrily on his keyboard ;-) Jacques, you have the (blog) floor:

Take a look at the excellent KenPom RPI pages, and sort the ranking by non-conference SOS. Then go to the bottom of the page and discover the truth :)

Here is what I discovered (the rankings are as of Thursday, December 6, 2007, 930am eastern time). This is the non-conference SOS (strength of schedule):

#330: Oregon State The lowest SOS ranked BCS team. I can feel the seat heating up Jay John!

#322: Florida They'd better re-record Queen's anthem to "We Were The Champions" :-) However, you can't really blame Billy "The NBA Diva" Donovan for doing this, he has a boatload of freshmen and all his players are either graduated or in the NBA!

#312: Georgia How long will Dennis Felton use the "rebuilding" excuse? Granted, they have had some off-court issues and transfers, but play somebody already!

#297: DePaul Jerry Weinwright is supposed to be one of the Yoda-disciple coaches. So what is going on here?

#290: Cincinutty I hope you like your "academically focused" team Nancy Z! Did they fire her yet? :)

#289: Georgetown Okay, one can excuse some of the teams that haven't had success by going soft, but Georgetown? Like father like son, eh? :)

#279: New Mexico Steve Alford must have fallen in love with the Southwestern cuisine because he doesn't want to leave the area ;-)

#228: Oklahoma So what if we have one of the best freshmen in the country? We'll hide for the moment :)

#223: Pittsburgh Now that's what I call fudging the numbers. Pitt's non-conference SOS was #274 yesterday before they played a "road game" at Duquesne. Because Duquesne is sooooo far away from Pitt! Jamie Dixon must have bought Jim Boeheim's "Scheduing for Success" best selling DVD sets ;-) Excuse me while I book an exotic vacation to my back yard :)

#215: Clemson Isn't this special? My two favorite teams back to back! We are in for yet another "stellar" Clemson season. Stellar before ACC play heats up that is. Then we beg for a CBI invite!

#214: California The secret to an undefeated record is simple, it's who you play, not how you play. Add the fumes from the nearby city, and you have a very pleasant experience ;-)

#210: Wisconsin I don't have anything against Bo Ryan, but his teams feel like they have a low ceiling. Scheduling soft doesn't help, does it?

#189 Kansas Surely they must have a roster full of inexperienced players. Surely they must not have McDonalds All Americans on their roster. Surely they wouldn't schedule like this if they had experienced and super talented players? Which leads to the question Is Bill Self the next Tubby Smith?

We could go on all day, but we have to stop at some point :) I hope you enjoyed this expose on the SOS Softies!

The first 2007-2008 College Basketball RPI is out already!

Take a cyber-stroll at KenPom's RPI page and you will find RPI and SOS rankings for the 2007-2008 college basketball season! That's right, there's enough data now for RPI and SOS! Ken Pomeroy does an excellent job with the RPI/SOS on his site!

And yes, Syracuse is out! They are #64 in the RPI! Just kidding Syracuse fans :-)

Some of the surprises perhaps in the top 10: Gonzo's Seton Hall, the Saint Mary's Gaels, the Donut Friars, and Miami. Check KenPom's RPI to see which one of these contestants is #1 in the RPI as of this moment.

For a complete list of RPI resources, check our previous RPI and Bracketology resource page.

Yes, you may think "this is way too early", but is it really? It's December already, and selection Sunday is just three and a half months away! So it's almost time to play, IN or OUT? And will both Duke and North Carolina take advantage of the pod system and play their games close to home since there will be week one and week two NCAA tournament games in the state of North Carolina this year? And will they give Gus Johnson more air time? Time to retire some of the play by play guys who are dozing off during the games, send Jim Nantz to the golf course, and give Gus Johnson more airtime!!!