Judgment Week: Louisville and Kentucky
It's only fitting to talk about those two bitter rivals together:
Louisville: In the summer Louisville looked very good on paper, with depth, talent and some experience. The optimism from the fall Canadian trip quickly faded as new and old injuries took their toll on Padgett, Palacios, Jenkins, and McGee (among others). Louisville was struggling and a rerun of last season was possible, or even worse, not even an NIT trip (eight fewer invites this year). But the injuries healed, and the freshman started to deliver, first Earl Clark and now the program-changer of this class, Derrick Caracter. Now Louisville looks like a hot team that could make a run to the Final Four providing no one else gets (re)injured and Caracter continues to make progress. However Pitino teams have been known to have highs and lows, and this could simply be their high. But some patterns of the classic Pitino teams of the 90s were barely visible in recent games, such as effective pressure, and turnover margin/efficiency. The Cardinals blew out St Johns without the three pointer, another positive sign. If At Louisville continues at this rate, they are going to be a top 8 seed (top 32 teams) (currently projected as a 7 seed by Joe Lunardi)
Kentucky: Kentucky's season was the opposite of Louisville. Kentucky started under the radar, their four-man recruiting class flew under the radar because of the all-star caliber recruits elsewhere, Randolph Morris was largely ignored because of his NBA non-draft. Slowly but steadily the Wildcats managed to string up some wins and crept back into the spotlight. However a losing streak burst that bubble, and the team almost lost to a baby-less LSU team. A "one-game losing streak" can create a stir in Lexington, so when it's more than one, one can imagine the stir... Kentucky is in the NCAA tourney (barring an 0-for-rest result) but their seed is not going to be high. While the four freshmen look like a good foundation class, the rest of the roster is not "Kentucky-caliber". Bradley looks like a 3rd guard that should come off the bench to provide a spark, not a starter. Crawford is not living to his expectations and even for a college tweener he looks a bit slow/heavy. Morris posts good numbers, but he is not a game-changer inside like one would expect from someone of his size and experience (compare his game-impact (not numbers) in the paint to Greg Oden's). Perry, Thomas, Obrzut are good rotation players but none of those guys are PTPers. However, if they listen to Tubby and play ball-line defense as he teaches them to, and if the four freshmen give them an offensive spark, they could make the Elite 8 and could even take down a number 1 seed along the way (eg as an 8/9 seed).
These Voting Records are public!
ESPN Personalities/experts (Bilas, Katz, Vitale, Lunardi, Gottleib, Schlabach, Glockner, and Howie Schwab) vote their Top 16 Power teams. Here is their voting record. If you look at Schwab's and Vitale's list, well, someone is cheating :-) The latest Power 16 is here. Since we are talking about ESPN, here are the latest brackets from Joey Brackets (aka Joe Lunardi).
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