Monday, February 27, 2006

Daily Bubble Talk - The Beginning!

This is a new daily segment talking about, what else, the BUBBLE!

So, here we go...

The NCAA field has 34 at-large teams and 31 conference champions.

Let's start with 27 teams from the "BCS" conferences that I predict as locks:
ACC - 4: Duke, Carolina, BC, NC State
Big Yeast - 6: UConn, Nova, W.Virginia, Gtown, Marquette, Pitt
Big Eleven - 6: Thada State (oops Ohio State), Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Izzo State and Michigan.
Pac 10 - 3: UCLA, Washington, CAL
Big 12 - 3: TeXas, KansaS, Oklahype
SEC - 5: LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama

This leaves 13 at-large bids available.

Next, here are five teams that I believe will get in (if they haven't already) - for one reason or another: Indiana, Arizona, Kentucky, Syracuse, Cincy

Next I am making the assumption that Memphis, Gonzaga and George Washington will run the table in the conference tourneys.

This leaves 8 at-large bids. Then I am giving Nevada one bid, and the Missouri Valley two at-large bids (+ the automatic), and I am making the assumption that the conference tourney will be won by one of the top 6 MVC teams.

So now we are left with five at-large bids to be shared among:

  • Missouri Valley: Three remaining at-large candidates
  • Colonial: George Mason, Hofstra, UNC-Wilma
  • CUSA: UAB, UTEP, Houston (the first two are without their best players Eddins and Tofi)
  • MWC: Sun Diego State, BYU, AF
  • WAC: Utah State, LaTech
  • A-10: A group of teams
  • ACC: FSU, Miami, Virginia, Maryland
  • Big Yeast: Seton Hall, Rutgers?
  • Big Eleven: None
  • Big 12: Colorado, Nebraska, Texas Tech?, Texas A&M? (their schedule is designed for an NIT bid)
  • Pac 10: Stanford?
  • SEC: South Carolina? Vandy?

    The five bids above could:
  • increase by one if Nevada gets their automatic bid
  • increase if Indiana/Arizona/Cincy/Syracuse/Kentucky fail to win the games they are supposed to.
  • decrease if Memphis/Gonzaga/George Washington do not get their conference's automatic bid
  • decrease (or even disappear) if the conference champions of multi-bid conferences are not at-large teams (this could range from 0 to 31!)

    W0w!

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