An alternative approach to Lunardi's Bracketology, Bracketology 101 uses a unique "projection-prediction" method to come up with the Field of 65.
Their latest Field of 65 projection is as of January 29.
They project 8 teams from the Big East, 7 from the Big Eleven (aka Big 10), 5 each from the Big 12, ACC and SEC, 4 each from the Pac10 and Missouri Valley (MVC), 2 each from C-USA, Mountain West, Atlantic 14 (aka A10). The rest of the conferences are projected with one bid each. For complete details, visit their site :)
My opinion on their predictions
As much as I love Gonzaga, they are definately not a #2. They were 3-3 against the Top 50, but then Washington fell off the Top 50, so now they are 3-2. Other teams have a better Top 50 record than the Zags.
UAB without Demario Eddins is probably too high as a #8.
I agree with their assessment of Cincy/Armen Kirkland.
They have setup some potentially nice TV matchups in their brackets, which the NCAA selection cmte loves but does not admit to: Duke-UCLA, Gonzaga-North Carolina, Arizona-Villanova.
Obviously upsets in conference tournaments tend to push the "Last Four In" towards the "Last Four Out", so the "Last Four In" are shaky.
Wednesday, February 01, 2006
Websites of Interest: Bracketology 101 blog
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
In defense...Gonzaga's profile does warrant a 2 seed at this point. They have good victories over Michigan State and Maryland and a few other victories over big conference opponents (Virginia and Oklahoma State). Two of their losses came against #1 seeds (Memphis and UConn) and their third was against Washington who is a tourney team. The only teams that can be a #2 over them would be Tennessee or Michigan State who both have higher RPIs. The case for Tennessee is a weak one. They have two good wins against Texas and Florida but they lost to Oklahoma State and their out of conference schedule was soft. It is a very close call between Gonzaga and Michigan State though for the last #2 seed right now. MSU has more quality victories then Gonzaga but they do have somewhat of a bad loss at Hawaii and Gonzaga beat them head to head.
It will be hard for Gonzaga to hold on to a #2 though. They have no more opportunities to pick up any quality victories and it will be tough for them to go through the rest of the season and WCC tourney without a slip up.
In regards to UAB, we do have them seeded higher then most people and if the season ended today they might not end up that high. They are 14-4 and their record will only get better in C-USA and they have a chance to pick up a big win at home against Memphis in March. So they very well could be 21-5 heading into the C-USA conference tourney and even if their best win still is just against Old Dominion a record like that would give them at least an 8 seed.
You got a nice site.
Thanks for your comments :) I just added your Bracketology 101 site to my list of basketball blogs.
I think if UAB manages to get a couple of notable wins against the other top 3 C-USA teams, then they would deserve a higher seed. Their play in the last two NCAA tourneys could also help them with their seed - if nothing else to create a hotly contested matchup (eg UAB-Washington in 2004). But if they can't get any other significant wins in C-USA without Demario Eddins, then I would have reservations giving them a Top 32 seed. So basically I'm saying they have to re-prove/reaffirm themselves without Demario Eddins.
As far as Gonzaga goes, and as much as I like Gonzaga, their overall SOS is #60 today (kenpom.com RPI), and they are only 3-2 against the Top 50. UConn, and Illinois have similarly low SOS but they have 7 and 6 Top 50 wins. Obviously it is not Gonzaga's fault the WCC has a low SOS/RPI so some of that should be factored in. Gonzaga hasn't lost to anyone they were not supposed to, so that always helps. But someone has to picked at #2. From the RPI top 10, I would pick Gonzaga over Pitt (OOC is very poor, easy Big East sched), Iowa (so-so on the road) and Tennessee as a #2, but I would give the #2 to West Virginia (momentum, #1 in BigEast, @Nova, @UCLA, despite Marshall and poor OOC), or UCLA (factoring in the multiple injuries). The other thing that could factor in is conference strength.
But you have good points on someone having to earn a #2 with their current resume: Even if Gonzaga's resume is not that of a #2, there isn't anyone else with a significantly better resume at this point.
I agree it would be hard for Gonzaga to hold on to #2 as the "BCS" teams pile up wins against each other. But Stanford is picking up some momentum - a Gonzaga win over Stanford could help as a reminder to the selection committee - assuming Stanford continues to win and makes some noise in the Pac10 tourney.
Post a Comment