Daily Bubble Talk, Part II (Thursday)

New content/commentary added hourly! Check the top and bottom of this post for new content!!!

An excellent visual aid in digesting all the RPI/SOS data is Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty Repor(t). It wins the Oscar for Best Visual Presentation of the RPI data! The site color-codes positive/negative numbers, bubble teams, and automatic bids (when they start rolling in). The site also has a weekly mock bracket projection as of Feb-25. Also of interest is their Predicted RPI feature where they project all remaining unplayed games/matchups (a what-if RPI). Also handy is their detailed conference breakdown also showing the RPI, the last 10, and the streak of each team (the CAA is shown in the link; you can chose your team/conference of choice from the pulldown menu)

Want more RPI and SOS data? Take a look at Real Time RPI and KenPom RPI

Winningest division 1 men's basketball teams by percentage at RPIRatings.com. Also handy is a list of home-court arenas and records for each team. And yes, the Carrier Dome has the highest capacity with 33,000 Oranges :)

Conference Tourney tracker at CBS Sportsline. Select your conference of interest from the pull down menu. The MVC is shown in the link.

Gary Parrish projects the Field of 65. Updated today. He has 19 teams on the bubble.

Some love for Division II: CIAA commish interview at CSTV.

CSTV and Jerry Palm came up with their own bracketology terms, such as Palm Readings and Bracketanica. Palm has 7 ACC teams but only 6 Big East teams in the field of 65 (updated last Friday)

CSTV has also embarked on a search for Cinderella, giving teams slipper ratings. Teams from all non-BCS teams are eligible in their Cinderella. Ironically super-Cinderella Gonzaga is not even receiving a single vote!

Selection Sunday B-story: Of the teams left out last year from the tourney, Hofstra and Missouri State were among the most justified to complain. As they are on (or near) the bubble again this year, it will be interesting to see if last year's snub pushes them in the field of 65 this year if the bubble situation is too close to call otherwise.

CollegeRPI.com has a free bracket projection and tape-delayed RPI data (as of Feb-25). Paid subscribers get access to more recent data. Also using the subscriber model with some free content is RPIratings.com.


Media segment

CBS Sports schedule for all upcoming college basketball games including the NCAA tourney.

Your favorite mid-major team playing a critical game but not shown on TV in your region? CSTV's online Pay Per View has C-USA, MWC, Patriot, A-10, and Southland. Also taking advantage of the CBS relationship, CBS regular season basketball games are available for purchase, in addition to CSTV, Versus and mtn games. They also have an unlimited games package (called XXL) for one monthly or annual fee. Individual games prices are $5 to $10. Ouch!

Please note that the CSTV website is one of the most multimedia-obnoxious sites. Just because broadband exists, it doesn't mean you have to bottle up the pipelines with MySpace-style bandwidth-wasting content :)


BUBBLE EXPRESS
Data courtesy of KenPom RPI
Let's look at some teams on the bubble, starting with Huggins State.

Bubble Express: Kansas State. The team has a record of 20-10, 9-6 conference, RPI 60, SOS 90, OOC RPI/SOS 75/219, Last10: 6-4, RPI 1-50: 1-6, RPI 51-100: 4-2, RPI101-200: 7-2, RPI201+: 8-0. The raw numbers show that they can beat teams who won't get any post-season play, and they can beat NIT teams (RPI 51-100). However they have a losing record against the at-large teams (RPI 1-50). How about the actual games?

Best OOC wins: USC (N), New Mexico (N), @Rutgers

Best conference wins: @Texas, Missouri sweep

Schedule holes: very soft OCC schedule loaded with cupcakes

In-conference schedule: Played Kansas twice, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech once. Played struggling Big 12 North teams twice which doesn't help NCAA-wise, but it helps NIT-wise.

Key Injury/Availability: Billy Walker

Resume Evaluation: Solid NIT-level resume right now. Concurring opinion: Projected as one seed in the NIT at NITology.

What they need to do for an NCAA bid?: Win more games!

More Bubble Express coming later on (time permitting)...


SHOCKING SECRETS REVEALED BY THE RPI! Okay, they are neither shocking, nor secrets, but I ran out of catchy names :-)

Less likely to lose a 1st round game if they get a high seed? (undefeated vs the RPI 101+): UCLA, Ohio State, Pitt, Wisconsin, Memphis, Florida, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Nova, Nevada, Michigan State, Indiana, Oregon, Texas, Illinois, Louisville, Winthrop

Most cupcake games (RPI 201+): Some are by choice, others are by conference affiliation: Memphis (20), Wisconsin, Ohio State, UNLV, Pitt, Texas A&M, Kansas, BYU, Nevada, Illinois, Butler, Air Force, Marquette, Texas, ODU, Bradley, Drexel, Michigan, Appalachian Trail State, West Virginia, SDSU, UMass (18), VCU (20), Kansas State, Davidson (23!), Utah State, Hofstra, Winthrop, Holy Cross, Gonzaga, New Mexico State, Akron (19), Vermont (20), Kent State, Wright State (20), etc, etc. All these teams have at least 14 cupcake wins! Don't hold it against the mid-majors as they have no control of their conference schedule, but do hold it against the "bcs" teams :-)

RPI Top 50 teams with losing records to the RPI Top 50: Pitt, Memphis, Kentucky, Nova, Nevada, Indiana, Michigan State, Washington State, Air Force, Texas, Illinois, Missouri State, Alabama, Louisville, Bradley, Purdue, Texas Tech, Clemson, FSU, Syracuse, and Michigan. This is not an indicator for an NCAA bid, but rather an indicator of whether they could make the Sweet 16

Upset Candidates? These RPI Top 50 teams have losses against the RPI 201+: BYU, BC, Vandy, Xavier, ODU, and Oklahoma State

Best records against the RPI Top 50: UCLA, Ohio State, North Carolina, Southern Illinois, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, Oregon, and Butler

Road Warriors among the RPI Top 90: Teams with at least 15 road/neutral games: Southern Illinois, Villanova, Washington State, Air Force, Bradley, Drexel, Appalachian Trail (oops State!), UMass, VCU, Kansas State, Davidson, hofstra, Winthrop, Holy Cross, Gonzaga, Vermont, Wright State, Bucknell, Long Beach State, Toledo, St Joe's, Western Kentucky

Top RPI teams with long winning streaks: Memphis, Ohio State, Southern Illinois, Nevada, ODU, Davidson, Winthrop, Vermont, Bucknell

Debbie Downers: Top RPI teams with losing Last-10-Games record: Oregon, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Clemson, Florida State, Meeeecheeeegan, Arkansas, California, (2-8), Northern Iowa, Dayton, LSU (2-8), South Carolina aka NIT Dynasty, Nebraska and UConn. Obviously this also depends on who their last 10 opponents were.

Data from KenPom RPI and Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty Report